The Impact of Political Cycle

时间：2013-07-18 00:00，来源：白鲨在线

Huihua Nie, Minjie Jiang, Xianghong Wang

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of political cycle on coalmine accidents in China. The political cycle is formed by the major local meetings of legislative bodies held every year in all provinces of China. This is because the government has a strong incentive to maintain social stability during the meetings and to focus on economic growth in other times. We test how such cycles affect coalmine fatality using monthly data at the provincial level between 2000 and 2010. We find that the number of accidents and casualties were significantly lowered during the local events of two sessions after controlling for other time fixed effects. The temporary reduction of accidents seemed to have been achieved by controlling production rather than by improving safety measures. The magnitude of the cycle for accidents is enlarged in provinces where media exposure is stronger and where the vice governor in charge of safety is faced with a possible extension to another term in the current post.
Key words: political cycle, political business cycle, China, coalmine accident
JEL Classification: H700, E320, D820, L510

Full text link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.04.002